If I Can Only Own Alphabet or Amazon for The Next 5 Years, I’m Choosing This One

Alex Sirois Thu, October 22, 2026 at 3:13 AM UTC

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24/7 Wall St. (24/7 Wall St.)Quick Read -

Editor's Note: This article has been to reflect the fact that Amazon's 2026 planned Capex now stands at $220 billion, not $200 billion.

GOOGL trades at ~15x earnings versus AMZN's ~35x, yet Google Cloud grew 82% to $24.8 billion against AWS's 37% growth to $42.2 billion, making Alphabet the cheaper, faster-growing pick.

Alphabet controls its entire AI stack, including models, chips, and distribution, but nearly doubled long-term debt to $98B to fund the buildout.

Over five years, GOOGL returned 148% against AMZN's 49%, with Google's earnings growth driving most of that outperformance.

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Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) both reported second-quarter results showing their cloud businesses speeding up in the same quarter. Both companies are spending heavily on AI compute, and investment gains inflated net income at each one. To compare them fairly, look at how the operating businesses performed and how much cash each expansion is using.

Google Cloud Speeds Up While AWS Finally Reaccelerates

Google Cloud revenue grew 82% to $24.77B, faster than the 63% it posted in Q1. It is a steep jump for a business of that size. Search and other revenue rose 17%, and AI features drove query growth. So far, chatbots are making the core business bigger. Sundar Pichai said "the Gemini App has 950 million monthly active users," and that gives Google a consumer AI audience few companies can match.

At Amazon, AWS grew 36.7%, its fastest rate in 18 quarters. Its operating margin was 39% and its backlog reached $496 billion, so the demand looks signed and profitable. Advertising rose 26%, adding a high-margin revenue stream on top of the retail business.

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Business Driver

Alphabet

Amazon

Fastest Grower

Google Cloud, +82%

AWS, +37%

Custom Silicon

TPU systems

Trainium and Graviton

Q2 Capex

$44.92B

$54.21B

Alphabet Owns Its AI Stack While Amazon Rents Out Choice

Alphabet controls each layer of its AI business: the models, the chips and the distribution through Search, YouTube and Android. According to Pichai, nearly 90% of the Fortune 100 use Gemini Enterprise. Owning the whole stack costs a lot. Free cash flow was -$5.86B, the buyback is suspended, and long-term debt rose from $46.5B to $98.2B. Alphabet used to pay for growth out of its own cash, so that is a real change.

Amazon takes a different approach. Bedrock hosts OpenAI, Anthropic and Google models side by side, and customers spent more on Bedrock in Q2 than in all prior quarters combined. Retail keeps the logistics network busy, but its margins are thin. North America ran at a 7.9% operating margin, so AWS has to carry most of the profit.

Cash Flow Will Show Which Buildout Pays Off First

Management said servers break even in a little less than three years. Watch for whether Alphabet's cash flow turns positive again and the buyback comes back. Amazon guided Q3 operating income to $22.5B to $26.5B, and the size of the increase toward roughly $220 billion in 2026 capex makes that number a key check on spending discipline. All of that spending has to be powered, cooled and networked by someone, which is why we pulled together seven suppliers riding the same expansion in a free report here.

Why I'm Choosing Alphabet for the Next Five Years

I lean toward Alphabet. It trades at about 15 times earnings, compared with about 35 for Amazon. That is a lower multiple for a company that is growing faster. Over five years, GOOGL returned 148.27% against 49.06% for AMZN, and Google's earnings have mostly made that gap.

I have one reservation: the $40B at-the-market stock program could dilute shareholders. If Search growth fades while capex keeps rising, I would reconsider. Amazon fits investors who want retail, ads and cloud in one stock. For a single five-year holding, I prefer the company that owns its model, its chips and its audience.

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